Holiday trading: I feel it will be entirely possible that your bull case and your bear case will co-exist, impacting different customer segments. So the impact on a specific business will depend on which customer segments the business serves (and whether it can pivot to a “bull” segment). As you have also previously mentioned, the holiday spend seems to be starting earlier in both the UK and the US
Housing question: How popular is shared equity housing in the UK; definitely seems to be taking off in the UK as the exit route for “Generation Rent” into ownership, sometimes with the initial purchased equity stake as little as 5%. That would impact your “bull case” for holiday trading, with that customer segment likely watching all discretionary spend to save for their deposit stake.