This feels like a market that’s getting flooded with opportunists, both governments salivating over the money and businesses that hope they’ll be able to get in there and be the winners. This market is one like the stock market where failure to be at the top performance level means you’re going to be caught on the losing side of an arbitrage trade, which could quickly drain company coffers with losing bets. With so many people getting into this space, I think I’d be looking at how I could exploit information asymmetry and place offsetting bets between different platforms when the differing odds guarantee me a winning outcome no matter what actually happens. That’s not going to be a long-term opportunity, but in the short-term there’s likely a window, just like those that took advantage of PayPal in the early years (story is told in Founders : the story of PayPal and the entrepreneurs who shaped Silicon Valley).